Location Strategy Chartbook 05.09.2026

With unemployment holding at 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the figures offer Federal Reserve policymakers space to keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market has shown “more signs of stability.”

But as is often the case of late, positive vibes of US government data didn’t match the latest sullen read of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan. The gauge fell in recent weeks to a record low on growing concerns about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions.

Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab: April nonfarm payrolls +115k vs. +65k est. & +185k in prior month (rev. up from +178k)

If you need a 'stock market is not the economy' visual, this is a good candidate:

Tech stocks relative to the market: all-time high.

Tech jobs relative to all jobs: all-time low.

Federal government payrolls lowest since May 1966

April prime age labor force participation rate unchanged at 83.8%

In April, job leavers as % of unemployed dropped to 11.3% vs. 12.4% in prior month

Number of unemployed on temporary layoffs (orange) up to 917k in April; permanent job losers (blue) up to 1.9m

In April, % of unemployed for more than 27 weeks at 25.3% down from 25.4% in prior month

Gasoline spending per small business client surged 23% year-over-year (YoY) in March, with higher fuel costs spilling over into freight, fertilizer, and inventory expenses. The pressure is especially pronounced in agriculture and transportation, while small
wholesalers are also grappling with inventory cost increases exceeding 60% YoY alongside ongoing tariff headwinds.

Small business payroll growth turned negative for the third straight month, signaling that owners are pulling back on headcount amid cost uncertainty. At the same time, small business payments to hiring firms have finally turned positive, with construction
and manufacturing hiring nearly 40% above the 2023 average.

At the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom, when nearly everything homebuilders were building was flying off the shelves, there were only 32,000 unsold completed new-build homes in March 2022. Once the boom fizzled out, that figure quickly began to rebound—especially in Sun Belt boomtowns—reaching a high of 134,000 unsold completed new-build homes by December 2025.

However, data published this week shows that the number of unsold completed new-build homes has, at least for now, fallen to 119,000 as of March 2026. While the count of unsold completed new-build homes is still up year-over-year (there were 113,000 unsold completed in March 2025), the decline over the past few months has been larger than seasonality alone would suggest.

“Unsold homes [for us] are down 25% from December and 35% from a year ago, with both unsold homes as a percentage of total inventory and completed unsold inventory at their lowest levels since fiscal 2023 for homes closed in the second quarter.”
“We expect starts in the third quarter to be lower than the second quarter, and we will continue to manage our inventory levels and start space based on market conditions.” Paul Romanowski, CEO of D.R. Horton, said during their April 21, 2026 earnings call